Civil Engineering MCQAE Level Civil Engineering
In PERT, the expected duration te of an activity with optimistic time a, most likely time m, and pessimistic time b (beta distribution) is:
Estimation and CostingPERT Beta DistributionMEDIUM
Choose the correct answer
A
te = (a + m + b) / 3
B
te = (a + 4m + b) / 6
C
te = (a + b) / 2
D
te = m only
Correct Answer
B. te = (a + 4m + b) / 6
Why is this the answer?
PERT: te = (a + 4m + b)/6; variance sigma^2 = ((b-a)/6)^2. Expected project duration = sum of te on critical path. Variance of project = sum of variances on critical path. Project completion time follows normal distribution. Probability of completing by time T: Z = (T - sum_te) / sqrt(sum_sigma^2).
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