The 'population forecasting' method best suited for a city with consistent historical growth rate is:
Choose the correct answer
Logistic curve (S-curve) for all Indian cities
Geometric progression (constant % growth rate) — most applicable when historical data shows consistent annual growth rate
Arithmetic progression always
Random guess method
Correct Answer
B. Geometric progression (constant % growth rate) — most applicable when historical data shows consistent annual growth rate
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Methods: (1) Arithmetic progression: constant increment — for declining/old cities; (2) Geometric progression: constant % growth rate — for cities with uniform % growth (most common for Indian cities at 2–3% /yr); (3) Incremental increase: accounts for change in rate; (4) Logistic: S-curve for cities nearing saturation; (5) Ratio/graphical. Geometric best for uniform historical % growth.
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